scheme-c · 8 themes · 9 tickers · 60d rolling ols
polymarket signals for commodities
Live backtest + pre-market models run against the same 9-ticker universe with a shadow-cost ledger per PROTOCOL §8.2. vNext shadow track (exploratory, not admissible for current verdict) runs in parallel.
§1 · signals
backtest uses pm[Fri] · premarket uses pm[Sun]Backtest
pm[fri]
| Ticker | Signal | Pred | R² |
|---|---|---|---|
| BZ=F | SHORT | -0.931% | 16.7% |
| CL=F | SHORT | -0.934% | 22.0% |
| DX-Y.NYB | SHORT | -0.069% | 7.3% |
| GC=F | LONG | 0.360% | 9.8% |
| NG=F | LONG | 0.731% | 9.9% |
| SI=F | LONG | 1.329% | 5.5% |
| SPY | LONG | 0.153% | 6.4% |
| TLT | SHORT | -0.058% | 6.7% |
| XLE | SHORT | -0.328% | 9.9% |
Pre-Market
pm[sun] on fri
| Ticker | Signal | Pred | R² |
|---|---|---|---|
| BZ=F | SHORT | -1.386% | 4.3% |
| CL=F | SHORT | -5.896% | 8.4% |
| DX-Y.NYB | SHORT | -0.069% | 7.1% |
| GC=F | LONG | 1.105% | 10.7% |
| NG=F | SHORT | -2.135% | 10.8% |
| SI=F | LONG | 6.228% | 13.0% |
| SPY | LONG | 0.251% | 10.5% |
| TLT | SHORT | -0.227% | 8.6% |
| XLE | SHORT | -0.245% | 9.8% |
Both models use 8 PM themes and per-ticker optimal feature selection. Scheme-C end-of-day
sampling, 60-day rolling OLS. Pre-market model substitutes pm[Sun] for pm[Fri] on Friday rows
to capture weekend PM activity before Monday open.
§2 · paper trades
per-ticker equity curvesPnL · §9 primary basis · ALL days clean (degraded days were backfilled 2026-06-10; exclusion re-arms automatically if degradation recurs)
paper_trade_events · shadow = net of costs
Backtest (Fri-PM)
portfolio (clean, 47d):
gross -4.12% ·
shadow -4.57%
| Ticker | N(clean) | Gross | Shadow |
|---|---|---|---|
| BZ=F | 47 | -22.67% | -22.99% |
| CL=F | 47 | -15.23% | -15.70% |
| DX-Y.NYB | 47 | -0.22% | -1.00% |
| GC=F | 47 | +3.47% | +2.91% |
| NG=F | 47 | +6.08% | +5.44% |
| SI=F | 47 | -1.80% | -2.24% |
| SPY | 46 | -3.71% | -3.94% |
| TLT | 46 | -0.36% | -0.67% |
| XLE | 46 | +7.70% | +7.37% |
Premarket (Sun-PM)
portfolio (clean, 47d):
gross +4.18% ·
shadow +3.77%
| Ticker | N(clean) | Gross | Shadow |
|---|---|---|---|
| BZ=F | 47 | +3.24% | +2.94% |
| CL=F | 47 | -19.58% | -20.04% |
| DX-Y.NYB | 47 | +4.26% | +3.60% |
| GC=F | 47 | +5.38% | +5.15% |
| NG=F | 47 | +16.76% | +16.18% |
| SI=F | 47 | +19.71% | +19.31% |
| SPY | 46 | +2.79% | +2.56% |
| TLT | 46 | -0.36% | -0.77% |
| XLE | 46 | +13.07% | +12.72% |
Gross vs shadow · backtest (clean)
Gross vs shadow · premarket (clean)
Backtest
cum pnl
| Ticker | N Days | Last | Cum PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| BZF | 43 | 2026-06-18 | -22.33% |
| CLF | 43 | 2026-06-18 | -24.87% |
| DX-Y.NYB | 47 | 2026-06-18 | -0.22% |
| GCF | 40 | 2026-06-18 | +3.47% |
| NGF | 40 | 2026-06-18 | +3.48% |
| SIF | 43 | 2026-06-18 | -2.21% |
| SPY | 42 | 2026-06-18 | -3.71% |
| TLT | 38 | 2026-06-18 | -0.36% |
| XLE | 40 | 2026-06-18 | +7.70% |
Pre-Market
cum pnl
| Ticker | N Days | Last | Cum PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| BZF | 43 | 2026-06-17 | +3.24% |
| CLF | 40 | 2026-06-18 | -19.58% |
| DX-Y.NYB | 44 | 2026-06-18 | +4.26% |
| GCF | 45 | 2026-06-18 | +5.45% |
| NGF | 42 | 2026-06-18 | +16.76% |
| SIF | 43 | 2026-06-18 | +19.71% |
| SPY | 40 | 2026-06-18 | +2.79% |
| TLT | 41 | 2026-06-18 | -0.36% |
| XLE | 41 | 2026-06-18 | +13.07% |
equity curves · backtest
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equity curves · pre-market
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🌙 §4b · weekend-active substitute · prospective
research · in-sample until 2026-06-05 · prospective afterWeekend PM information — precisely: Saturday's PM move (00:00-UTC bar deltas; P3.10 verified this Saturday-based quantity beats true-Sunday 56%-vs-49% — see retro 2026-06-10) — restricted to weekend-active themes (shutdown · russia · tariffs · iran), predicts the Monday close-to-close move (in-sample slope +1.34, t=4.04, perm-p=0.0014). Call = sign of the weekend substitute increment, computed live from prod signal_state. Hold to Monday close (the edge is in the session, not the open gap). Prospective verdict 2026-07-13. Excluded: fed/recession/china (weekend-static). GC=F has no weekend-active theme → no call. P3.13 (2026-06-10): paper Fri-close accounting is NOT deployable (the Fri→Sun-reopen gap is untradeable; shock reopens overshoot). The E2 columns score the same calls at a real entry — first intraday print at/after Mon 01:00 UTC (current live compute timing) — exit Monday close.
directional hit-rate (settled, non-flat):
35/56 = 62%
vs 50% coin-flip
tradable E2 (entry Mon 01:00 UTC):
4/8 = 50%
· shadow
-0.47%
(paper same-rows -3.68%)
E2 clean-only (≥06-05):
3/5 · -0.59%
Latest Friday call → Monday
2026-06-12 → 2026-06-15
| Ticker | Call | Themes | Incr | Fri→Mon | E2→Mon | Hit | Cum PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CL=F | FLAT | shutdown | +0.0000 | -4.87% | — | · | +19.85% |
| BZ=F | LONG | tariffs · shutdown | +0.0026 | -4.76% | -0.37% | ✗ | +16.76% |
| NG=F | FLAT | shutdown | +0.0000 | +0.86% | — | · | +4.79% |
| SI=F | LONG | russia | +0.0007 | +3.25% | -0.72% | ✓ | +3.65% |
| XLE | FLAT | shutdown | +0.0000 | -3.48% | — | · | +0.17% |
| SPY | SHORT | iran · russia | -0.0035 | +1.76% | -0.38% | ✗ | -1.68% |
| DX-Y.NYB | LONG | russia · shutdown | +0.0001 | -0.12% | +0.23% | ✗ | +0.07% |
| TLT | SHORT | iran · shutdown | -0.0026 | -0.06% | -0.03% | ✓ | +0.25% |
Scored history (settled Fridays)
| Friday → Monday | Hits | E2 | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 → 2026-06-15 | 2/5 | 3/5 | 40% |
| 2026-06-05 → 2026-06-08 | 2/5 | — | 40% |
| 2026-05-29 → 2026-06-01 | 6/8 | — | 75% |
| 2026-05-22 → 2026-05-25 | 4/5 | — | 80% |
| 2026-05-15 → 2026-05-18 | 3/4 | — | 75% |
| 2026-05-08 → 2026-05-11 | 5/8 | — | 62% |
| 2026-05-01 → 2026-05-04 | 6/8 | — | 75% |
| 2026-04-24 → 2026-04-27 | 4/8 | — | 50% |
| 2026-04-17 → 2026-04-20 | 3/5 | 1/3 | 60% |
History before 2026-06-05 is in-sample (theme partition chosen with knowledge of this window). Genuinely prospective rows accrue weekly. Futures/DXY closes settle via R-3; the most recent Monday may show ✓/✗ only after settlement.
Portfolio · gross vs shadow (equal-weight, weekend round-trips)
cum:
gross +6.83% ·
shadow +6.57%
·
tradable E2 -0.47%
(48 rows no intraday)
shadow = gross net of round-trip cost (2× one-way: 1.5bp futures · 2bp DXY · 1bp ETF). Cumulative additive %, equal-weight across active tickers per weekend. In-sample until 2026-06-05. E2 = same calls scored at a deployable entry — each asset's own first tradable print after the signal exists (futures/DXY: ≥ Mon 01:00 UTC; ETFs: ≥ Mon 13:30 UTC open) — exit Mon close; per-trade additive, paired against paper on identical rows. The H1 quiet-weekend-core test from P3.13 accrues here weekly (per-asset entry convention since 2026-06-11).
🔬 §4c · P11 pre-registered slices · prospective
frozen 2026-06-11 · window 2026-06-15 → 2026-08-21 · interim 2026-07-13Two hypotheses mined from the post-freeze in-sample window (04-15 → 06-10, ~50 cuts examined → multiple-comparisons prior applies). Specs + verdict rules frozen in P11_plan_prereg_sunpm_weekday_xle.md; this panel is the same mechanical read as p11_prereg_eval.py on forward rows only. Both come from one mining pass — if both PASS that is one joint result, not two. PASS ≠ deploy (P3.13: paper margins die at real entry). Data through 2026-06-18.
H-A · Sun-PM model — Mon+Tue carry the edge
PENDING
| Slice | fwd PnL (pts) | win% | n | in-sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A1 · Mon+Tue (pre) | +7.89 | 70.6 | 17 | +78.99 · 62.7% · 126 |
| A2 · Wed–Fri (pre) | -0.66 | 53.3 | 15 | −64.64 · 50.5% · 202 |
Claim: Sunday-PM information is freshest Monday and decays by Wednesday (pre−backtest same-day gap was +55.56 pts on Mondays alone in-sample). PASS = A1 pnl > 0 ∧ win ≥ 55% ∧ A1 > A2, n ≥ 60 · FAIL = A1 pnl ≤ 0 ∨ win < 50%.
H-B · XLE-only — the one ticker with an edge
PENDING
| Slice | fwd PnL (pts) | win% | n | in-sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| B1 · XLE pooled ×4 models | -0.20 | 45.5 | 11 | +44.50 · 69.0% · 126 |
| B1d · day-level mean | +1.76 | 50.0 | 4 | +13.08 · 71.4% · 35 |
| B2 · XLE pre-only | +0.92 | 50.0 | 4 | +14.84 · 71% · 35 |
Claim: slow ETF reprices slower than CL/BZ futures (CL=F was −93 pts across all 4 models in-sample). B1d corrects cross-model correlation in B1's n. Attribution caveat: in-sample XLE wins sat on macro-only/shutdown days, not its d_china feature days. PASS = B1 pnl > 0 ∧ win ≥ 60% ∧ B1d pnl > 0, n ≥ 30 · FAIL = B1 pnl ≤ 0 ∨ win < 52%.
H-A · per-ticker forward cum PnL % (pre model)
| Ticker | A1 Mon+Tue | n | A2 Wed–Fri | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BZ=F | -0.30 | 2 | -0.19 | 1 |
| CL=F | -0.95 | 2 | +2.29 | 1 |
| DX-Y.NYB | +0.21 | 2 | +1.47 | 2 |
| GC=F | +0.07 | 1 | +3.69 | 2 |
| NG=F | +3.79 | 2 | +1.97 | 1 |
| SI=F | +3.01 | 2 | -5.88 | 2 |
| SPY | -2.36 | 2 | -0.47 | 2 |
| TLT | +0.61 | 2 | -0.65 | 2 |
| XLE | +3.82 | 2 | -2.89 | 2 |
H-B · XLE forward cum PnL % per model
| Model | cum PnL % | win% | n | in-sample |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| backtest | +3.42 | 75.0 | 4 | +9.28 · 65% |
| pre | +0.92 | 50.0 | 4 | +14.84 · 71% |
| vnext | -1.65 | 0.0 | 1 | +12.05 · 70% |
| vnext_pre | -2.89 | 0.0 | 2 | +8.34 · 70% |
cum PnL % = additive SUM(pnl_day)×100 over forward rows only (same convention as §2). In-sample columns are the frozen 04-15→06-10 baselines.
Forward equity curves · cumulative additive % (gross, paper convention)
A1 = pre model Mon+Tue slice · A2 = pre model Wed–Fri slice · XLE = day-level mean across the 4 models. All start at 0 on 2026-06-15; if H-A holds, A1 should climb while A2 stays flat/negative.
Watch-only (not registered, no verdict): entry-day PnL vs carry-day PnL (entry first-holding-day was negative in 3/4 models in-sample — delay-entry idea needs a state-machine replay, not a row slice) · vnext flip-day PnL (−31.51 pts @ 30.6% in-sample; wide 0.25σ deadzone means flips need big prediction swings, and those swings mistime turns) · |prediction| terciles (PnL monotone ↑, win% inverted, in-sample). Tracked informally at interim; any of these gets registered only if its forward sign holds on 07-13.
§3 · §9.4 fragility flags
ledger curves merged into §2 (2026-06-10) · PROTOCOL §8.2 · from 2026-04-15Portfolio gross-vs-shadow curves now live in §2 (the §9 primary panel) — identical series while no degraded days exist; if degradation recurs, §2 shows clean-only and the full audit series is recoverable from the ledger. shadow = net of one-way fees per §8.2 (futures 1.5, ETFs 1.0, FX 2.0 bps, charged on position changes). §9.4 go/no-go uses Shadow.
fragility flags · §9.4
triggered at >40% single-ticker/weekday concentration
Primary:
ticker:BZ=F=503%
ticker:CL=F=343%
ticker:SI=F=49%
ticker:SPY=86%
weekday:Tue=290%
weekday:Wed=789%
weekday:Thu=728%
Secondary:
ticker:BZ=F=78%
ticker:DX-Y.NYB=95%
ticker:GC=F=137%
ticker:NG=F=429%
ticker:SI=F=512%
ticker:SPY=68%
ticker:XLE=337%
weekday:Mon=936%
weekday:Fri=1857%
collector_health
status:
ok
run_at: 2026-06-19T01:47:49Z
latest: 2026-06-18
signals: 36
events: 1644
⚡ §4 · vnext shadow · exploratory
NOT admissible · separate evaluation track
universe: CL=F · BZ=F · NG=F · GC=F · SI=F · XLE · SPY · DX-Y.NYB · TLT
eligible (5): iran · russia · fed · china · crypto
— tariffs/recession/shutdown excluded (<15 markets)
Shadow start: 2026-04-17. Research tracking only. See VNEXT_SHADOW_LAUNCH.md.
Signals · backtest
| Ticker | Signal | Themes | Pred |
|---|---|---|---|
| BZF | FLAT | d_iran · d_russia · d_china | -0.0093 |
| CLF | FLAT | d_iran · d_russia · d_china | -0.0093 |
| DX-Y.NYB | LONG | d_russia · d_fed · d_china | 0.0024 |
| GCF | LONG | d_iran · d_fed · d_crypto | 0.0137 |
| NGF | LONG | d_china | 0.0073 |
| SIF | LONG | d_russia · d_crypto | 0.0133 |
| SPY | LONG | d_iran · d_fed | 0.0093 |
| TLT | FLAT | d_russia | -0.0005 |
| XLE | FLAT | d_russia · d_china · d_crypto | -0.0035 |
Signals · premarket
| Ticker | Signal | Themes | Pred |
|---|---|---|---|
| BZF | SHORT | d_russia · d_fed · d_china | -0.0699 |
| CLF | SHORT | d_russia · d_fed · d_china | -0.0611 |
| DX-Y.NYB | LONG | d_russia · d_fed · d_china | 0.0012 |
| GCF | LONG | d_fed · d_crypto | 0.0133 |
| NGF | LONG | d_iran · d_china · d_crypto | 0.0073 |
| SIF | LONG | d_russia · d_fed · d_crypto | 0.0623 |
| SPY | LONG | d_iran · d_russia | 0.0033 |
| TLT | SHORT | d_iran · d_crypto | -0.0023 |
| XLE | SHORT | d_fed | -0.0224 |
Paper · backtest
| Ticker | N Days | Last | Cum PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| BZF | 34 | 2026-06-16 | -14.5% |
| CLF | 37 | 2026-06-18 | -19.87% |
| DX-Y.NYB | 33 | 2026-06-18 | 1.15% |
| GCF | 35 | 2026-06-15 | -2.9% |
| NGF | 31 | 2026-06-16 | -0.36% |
| SIF | 30 | 2026-06-09 | 2.92% |
| SPY | 36 | 2026-06-18 | -1.79% |
| TLT | 30 | 2026-06-18 | -3.07% |
| XLE | 31 | 2026-06-18 | 4.87% |
Paper · premarket
| Ticker | N Days | Last | Cum PnL |
|---|---|---|---|
| BZF | 36 | 2026-06-16 | -48.25% |
| CLF | 33 | 2026-06-12 | -27.56% |
| DX-Y.NYB | 34 | 2026-06-18 | -0.39% |
| GCF | 33 | 2026-06-12 | 1.42% |
| NGF | 35 | 2026-06-16 | -9.07% |
| SIF | 32 | 2026-06-15 | 15.13% |
| SPY | 29 | 2026-06-17 | 0.93% |
| TLT | 37 | 2026-06-18 | -3.24% |
| XLE | 32 | 2026-06-18 | -1.86% |
Gross vs shadow · backtest
Gross vs shadow · premarket
equity curves · vnext backtest
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equity curves · vnext pre-market
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§5 · event radar
469 markets · 8 themes · 2026-06-19T01:48
INTRA_THEME_DIVERGENCE
crypto: 8 markets up, 13 markets down (>2% each)
INTRA_THEME_DIVERGENCE
iran: 16 markets up, 12 markets down (>2% each)
Top movers · 24h
| Theme | Market | Direction | Change | Current |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| iran | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? | DOWN | -62.6% | 18.8% |
| iran | Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 1 | DOWN | -37.0% | 44.5% |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? | DOWN | -33.5% | 5.5% |
| crypto | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 18? | DOWN | -32.0% | 40.5% |
| fed | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the Sep | UP | +22.0% | 37.5% |
| fed | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the Sept | DOWN | -22.0% | 47.5% |
| iran | Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? | UP | +21.0% | 34.0% |
| iran | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | DOWN | -18.9% | 61.8% |
§6 · market context
prices · correlations · historylatest close · 9 tickers
CL=F
$75.52
2026-06-18
BZ=F
$79.38
2026-06-18
NG=F
$3.22
2026-06-18
GC=F
$4206.70
2026-06-18
SI=F
$65.27
2026-06-18
XLE
$53.77
2026-06-18
SPY
$746.74
2026-06-18
TLT
$86.75
2026-06-18
DX-Y.NYB
$100.80
2026-06-18
price history · normalized · 5d
click legend to toggle
All assets normalized to 1.0 at start for comparable overlay.
§7 · monitored markets
latest snapshot · 227 markets| Theme | Market | YES | Liquidity | Polarity |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| china | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | 6.2% | $608,061 | neutral |
| china | China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | 22.5% | $35,954 | neutral |
| china | Will a team from LPL (China) win MSI 2026? | 31.5% | $31,560 | neutral |
| china | Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? | 1.8% | $15,982 | neutral |
| china | Xi Jinping out in 2025? | — | $— | neutral |
| china | Will Trump visit China by May 15? | 100.0% | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? | 1.4% | $100,348 | neutral |
| crypto | Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? | 1.6% | $90,026 | neutral |
| crypto | Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? | 0.4% | $85,823 | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? | 2.1% | $83,842 | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? | 55.5% | $80,215 | neutral |
| crypto | Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? | 6.0% | $61,432 | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? | 26.5% | $60,384 | neutral |
| crypto | Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? | 5.1% | $55,470 | neutral |
| crypto | Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026? | 2.9% | $52,815 | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? | 3.7% | $52,475 | neutral |
| crypto | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? | 99.9% | $45,945 | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026? | 12.5% | $45,367 | neutral |
| crypto | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? | 0.1% | $32,972 | neutral |
| crypto | Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? | 8.5% | $27,051 | neutral |
| crypto | Ethereum all time high by September 30, 2026? | 2.8% | $24,552 | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? | 18.0% | $9,259 | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? | 64.5% | $8,773 | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 18? | 4.1% | $5,948 | neutral |
| crypto | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | — | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? | — | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? | — | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? | — | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? | — | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10? | — | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? | — | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? | — | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? | — | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? | — | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? | — | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? | 100.0% | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Bitcoin above $105,000 on January 31? | 100.0% | $— | neutral |
| crypto | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | 100.0% | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in December? | — | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025? | — | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? | 100.0% | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? | — | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? | — | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in November? | 100.0% | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin hit $100k again in 2024? | — | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? | — | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Ethereum above $3,400 on January 24? | — | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Ethereum reach $3,750 in November? | — | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in December? | — | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? | — | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? | — | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Trump say "crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his inauguration speech? | — | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? | — | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Ethereum above $3,400 on January 31? | 100.0% | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? | — | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? | — | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? | — | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by February 28, 2025? | — | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Ethereum above $2,700 on February 21? | 100.0% | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May? | — | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 by February 28, 2025? | 100.0% | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in March? | — | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? | — | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? | 100.0% | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin reach $110k in May? | 100.0% | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? | — | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? | — | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Bitcoin all time high by March 31, 2026? | — | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by January 31, 2025? | — | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin reach $125K in July? | — | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? | — | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will Ethereum reach $8000 in October? | — | $— | neutral |
| crypto | Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $109K on June 10? | 100.0% | $— | neutral |
| fed | Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 1.1% | $185,731 | neutral |
| fed | Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 0.4% | $167,996 | neutral |
| fed | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee | 1.2% | $156,319 | neutral |
| fed | Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 0.4% | $124,560 | neutral |
| fed | Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? | 11.5% | $91,051 | neutral |
| fed | Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? | 1.9% | $78,637 | neutral |
| fed | Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | 2.8% | $68,167 | neutral |
| fed | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 | 47.5% | $60,826 | neutral |
| fed | Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? | 0.4% | $11,917 | neutral |
| fed | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | — | $— | neutral |
| fed | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? | — | $— | neutral |
| fed | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m | — | $— | neutral |
| fed | Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | — | $— | neutral |
| fed | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after November 2024 meeting? | — | $— | neutral |
| fed | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? | — | $— | neutral |
| fed | Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? | — | $— | neutral |
| fed | No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | 100.0% | $— | neutral |
| fed | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? | — | $— | neutral |
| fed | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | — | $— | neutral |
| fed | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me | — | $— | neutral |
| fed | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee | 100.0% | $— | neutral |
| fed | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m | — | $— | neutral |
| fed | No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? | — | $— | neutral |
| fed | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | — | $— | neutral |
| fed | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m | — | $— | neutral |
| fed | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me | — | $— | neutral |
| fed | Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | 100.0% | $— | neutral |
| fed | Will Trump nominate David Zervos as the next Fed chair? | — | $— | neutral |
| fed | Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | — | $— | neutral |
| fed | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? | — | $— | neutral |
| fed | No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? | 100.0% | $— | neutral |
| fed | Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after November 2024 meeting? | — | $— | neutral |
| fed | Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after November 2024 meeting? | — | $— | neutral |
| fed | Will Fed cut interest rates 3 times in 2024? | — | $— | neutral |
| fed | Will Trump nominate David Malpass as the next Fed chair? | — | $— | neutral |
| fed | Will Trump nominate Larry Lindsey as the next Fed chair? | — | $— | neutral |
| fed | Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? | — | $— | neutral |
| fed | Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024? | — | $— | neutral |
| fed | Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | — | $— | neutral |
| iran | Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? | 100.0% | $4,039,873 | neutral |
| iran | Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? | 0.1% | $1,535,920 | neutral |
| iran | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 0.2% | $1,123,736 | neutral |
| iran | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | 13.5% | $757,950 | neutral |
| iran | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 12.5% | $345,637 | neutral |
| iran | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | 3.6% | $156,066 | neutral |
| iran | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? | 0.4% | $127,949 | neutral |
| iran | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | 7.5% | $99,390 | neutral |
| iran | Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? | 6.8% | $86,411 | neutral |
| iran | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | 13.5% | $69,903 | neutral |
| iran | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? | 3.4% | $60,807 | neutral |
| iran | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 | 24.5% | $58,019 | neutral |
| iran | Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | 4.5% | $54,715 | neutral |
| iran | Will Ali Asghar Hejazi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | 0.2% | $54,006 | neutral |
| iran | Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | 0.2% | $53,557 | neutral |
| iran | Will Mustafa Hijri be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | 0.2% | $50,108 | neutral |
| iran | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia? | 0.1% | $50,007 | neutral |
| iran | Will Reza Pirzadeh be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | 0.2% | $49,891 | neutral |
| iran | Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | 0.4% | $46,766 | neutral |
| iran | Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju | 10.8% | $44,992 | neutral |
| iran | Will Mahmoud Ahmadinejad be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | 0.3% | $43,044 | neutral |
| iran | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? | 0.2% | $38,105 | neutral |
| iran | Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | 0.2% | $37,501 | neutral |
| iran | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? | 0.1% | $31,282 | neutral |
| iran | US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? | 4.5% | $28,332 | neutral |
| iran | Iran coup attempt by June 30? | 1.2% | $26,791 | neutral |
| iran | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? | 18.8% | $24,520 | neutral |
| iran | Kurds declare independence from Iran? | 0.9% | $23,908 | neutral |
| iran | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? | 0.3% | $21,983 | neutral |
| iran | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | 61.8% | $20,389 | neutral |
| iran | Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | 90.5% | $19,918 | neutral |
| iran | Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? | 3.7% | $19,285 | neutral |
| iran | Will any U.S. House member enter Iran by June 30? | 1.4% | $14,896 | neutral |
| iran | Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30? | 0.4% | $11,747 | neutral |
| iran | Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? | 12.5% | $10,475 | neutral |
| iran | Will the UK designate the IRGC a terrorist organization by June 30? | 1.4% | $3,838 | neutral |
| iran | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 100.0% | $— | neutral |
| iran | US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | — | $— | neutral |
| iran | US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | 100.0% | $— | neutral |
| iran | US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | 100.0% | $— | neutral |
| iran | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? | 100.0% | $— | neutral |
| iran | Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | 100.0% | $— | neutral |
| iran | US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? | 100.0% | $— | neutral |
| iran | US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | — | $— | neutral |
| iran | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | — | $— | neutral |
| iran | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? | 100.0% | $— | neutral |
| iran | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | — | $— | neutral |
| iran | US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | 100.0% | $— | neutral |
| iran | US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? | — | $— | neutral |
| iran | Major cyberattack on Iran in June? | 100.0% | $— | neutral |
| iran | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? | — | $— | neutral |
| iran | US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? | — | $— | neutral |
| iran | Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | — | $— | neutral |
| iran | Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | — | $— | neutral |
| iran | US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? | — | $— | neutral |
| iran | US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? | — | $— | neutral |
| iran | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? | — | $— | neutral |
| iran | Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | — | $— | neutral |
| iran | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? | — | $— | neutral |
| iran | US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? | — | $— | neutral |
| iran | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15? | — | $— | neutral |
| iran | Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? | — | $— | neutral |
| iran | Iran leadership change by April 30? | — | $— | neutral |
| iran | Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? | — | $— | neutral |
| iran | France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | — | $— | neutral |
| iran | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | — | $— | neutral |
| iran | Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | 100.0% | $— | neutral |
| iran | US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? | — | $— | neutral |
| iran | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | — | $— | neutral |
| iran | Iran closes its airspace by May 27? | — | $— | neutral |
| iran | Israel military action against Iran by Friday? | 100.0% | $— | neutral |
| iran | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? | 100.0% | $— | neutral |
| iran | US strikes Iran by February 4, 2026? | — | $— | neutral |
| recession | US recession by end of 2026? | 12.5% | $32,603 | neutral |
| recession | Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%? | 78.5% | $10,573 | neutral |
| russia | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | 47.5% | $90,093 | neutral |
| russia | Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? | 0.1% | $83,584 | neutral |
| russia | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | 93.0% | $79,427 | neutral |
| russia | Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec | 0.2% | $74,231 | neutral |
| russia | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | 32.5% | $67,891 | neutral |
| russia | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | 10.6% | $66,732 | neutral |
| russia | Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliam | 95.7% | $52,672 | neutral |
| russia | Will US withdraw from NATO by June 30? | 0.2% | $52,022 | neutral |
| russia | Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? | 0.6% | $47,118 | neutral |
| russia | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | 14.5% | $38,395 | neutral |
| russia | Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30? | 4.9% | $33,579 | neutral |
| russia | Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the most seats | 0.2% | $30,533 | neutral |
| russia | Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen | 34.7% | $30,263 | neutral |
| russia | Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country? | 0.2% | $30,221 | neutral |
| russia | Will Russia invade another country in 2026? | 10.0% | $29,489 | neutral |
| russia | US x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? | 0.7% | $28,924 | neutral |
| russia | Will Trump and Putin meet next in Australia? | 0.1% | $21,899 | neutral |
| russia | Will Trump and Putin meet next in Ukraine? | 0.1% | $18,682 | neutral |
| russia | Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by June 30? | 0.8% | $16,920 | neutral |
| russia | Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? | 1.1% | $16,830 | neutral |
| russia | Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027? | 0.7% | $15,005 | neutral |
| russia | Will Trump and Putin meet next in Switzerland? | 0.1% | $14,102 | neutral |
| russia | Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan before 2027? | 0.6% | $13,118 | neutral |
| russia | Will Trump and Putin meet next in Finland? | 0.1% | $12,758 | neutral |
| russia | Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus before 2027? | 0.7% | $12,652 | neutral |
| russia | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? | 35.5% | $8,510 | neutral |
| russia | Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay | 15.5% | $7,977 | neutral |
| russia | Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? | 15.5% | $7,897 | neutral |
| russia | Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? | 0.2% | $6,666 | neutral |
| russia | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? | 100.0% | $— | neutral |
| russia | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? | — | $— | neutral |
| russia | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? | 100.0% | $— | neutral |
| russia | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? | — | $— | neutral |
| russia | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? | — | $— | neutral |
| russia | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? | — | $— | neutral |
| russia | Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? | — | $— | neutral |
| shutdown | US government shutdown Saturday? | 100.0% | $— | neutral |
| shutdown | Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? | 100.0% | $— | neutral |
| shutdown | Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? | — | $— | neutral |
| tariffs | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | — | $— | neutral |